Maybe in California. Maybe
Why would electric car get rid of dealerships though. You would still test drive and maintain. As for electric overcoming gas, people already drive vehicles well over a decade of and quality just keeps getting better. (along with mileage). I'm hoping hybrid becomes the de facto standard and drives down emissions.
http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/ev-auto-dealerships-rethinkx-desrosiers-1.4151526
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Without reading the story, I'm guessing that could be because Tesla refuses to sell any cars through any shop other than their own.
ReplyDeleteI don't think the electric car is king yet though, pretty useless here in Australia if you don't live on the eastern seaboard where they actually have superchargers, the distances are just too great for the range of the vehicles.
They are predicting a sea change in behaviour where people don't get cars because it will save them thousands of dollars and car pooling will finally catch on. The electric part will get rid of garages because the only thing that breaks on cars is the engine. I take my Porsche for oil changes, that's true, but repairs have been on trim and consumables like wipers.
ReplyDeleteTo me, I can see a legislative change that will reduce the encouragement for dealerships, and increase the upside to direct sales by the manufacturer. In decades past, the main way a buyer learned about the possibilities was to go down to a dealership or 3 and looky-loo before test driving and buying. Nowadays people learn online, read reviews, watch videos, and book test drives online. If Tesla (et al) push the direct sales more, and legislation changes in major ways to allow direct sales in more places (gasp ... Standardized rules even!), Then I could see a reduction in the efficacy of the dealership model.
ReplyDeleteI'm much less sold on the car pooling and transit arguments, though. People like owning a vehicle. As long as people like something, there is gonna be demand for it. And as long as there is demand ...
Most likely because car ownership will just about disappear? Consider the combination of long lived electrical cars and self driving cars. Both of these are positive pressures on a huge fleet of company owned cars that appear on demand.
ReplyDeleteNut jobs!
ReplyDeleteI can see that Cindy Brown but not in 10 years most places in the US and definitely not in Canada outside of urban areas where there are large swatches of low population.
ReplyDeleteYes, I am skeptical of the timeline as well. But things can change very rapidly and I won't rule that out.
ReplyDeleteThis gives some possible context (and I think you are right about the differential between urban and rural; for example I think we'll see self-drive-only zones start in urban centers):
quora.com - How long did it take to get horse drawn carriages off the roads in lieu of cars?
It is natural to shift to electric, solar and hydrogen powered vehicles in a situation where fossil fuel is depleting.
ReplyDelete