Friday 15 May 2020

COVID-19 the reopening



It seems that in most provinces in Canada the curve has been flatten enough to start resuming some activities. Where I am, only the "extra" activities were really closed down. Construction and manufacturing (including oil production) stayed working. Travel, leisure based activities and health initiatives deemed less lifesaving were closed. Now it's time to decide how much I will participate; we are privileged in being retired so we have a lot of flexibility.

  • Leaving the house - we already shop at less busy time but I'm very uncomfortable going into stores right now. If I can't do curbside pickup, I will wear a cloth mask. I don't wear one outside because we can easily physically distance.

  • Domestic travel - this is pretty well by car. Once group meetings for 10 people are routine with no outbreaks in the area we would travel to, we'll probably make separate trips with 2 weeks at home in between to make sure we aren't carrying anything. August for the soonest I think.

  • International travel - unlikely until there is an understanding of long term effects of this disease along with medical interventions that would either the virus from infecting to any degree. This could be a vaccination or medication. Both would be preferable.

A lot of people seem very complacent about their risk and I can understand that. We go the the South Pacific where Dengue Fever is endemic; it's blood borne, there is no cure and it can be fatal but there are several controls that can be quite effective because it's known how it's transmitted - by mosquitoes. So reduce mosquito populations by minimizing standing water to, using coils (or even fans) to keep them away from areas and wear insect repellent. 

What do we know about SARS-CoV 2 in May 2020? It's airborne, there's no cure and it can be fatal. What's the viral load for infection? We don't know yet. How do we know we might be infected? A bunch of symptoms common to a lot of routine illness and some that are unusual and intermittent. What organs does it affect? We don't know all of it but at least lungs and heart in immuno-compromised people. Is there a full recovery? Seems like it. How long are you immune after you have it? We don't know yet. Can it come back in another form like chicken pox <->shingles? We don't know yet. 

I fully expect COVID-19 to become endemic. I will not get a vaccination if one is available in 2020 because I can self isolate and I don't think there will be enough time for a full health assessment. I am too old be be a guinea pig for health.

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